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Diese Seite informiert über meine Forschungsinteressen und stellt aktuelle Working Papers sowie Daten zum Download zur Verfügung.

Interdependenz und Politikdiffusion, Globalisierungsprozesse, Agentenbasierte Simulationsmodelle

Datensatz zur Handels- und Kapitalverkehrsrestriktivität in 142 Staaten, 1978-2005.

"Stealth diffusion: An agent based modeling approach"

Paper presented at the ECPR General Conference, Potsdam, Germany, 10 - 12 September, 2009.

Abstract:
Numerous studies on policy diffusion have argued that the driving force behind such processes is learning from experiences made elsewhere. This paper takes issue with the selection bias inherent in most of these accounts. By focusing on cases of policy adoptions, it is frequently overlooked that diffusion might well take place without triggering any observable effect that is nonetheless different from a scenario without diffusion. I develop an agent based simulation model of policy adoption where policies are adopted according to one of three scenarios: Random adoption, learning from successful policies and learning from failed policies. It is shown that while learning from successful policies can be clearly distinguished from random adoption, the same is not true for the third scenario. I show that under a range of parameter assumptions, no policy change occurs although learning was present as a diffusion mechanism.

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"Conditional diffusion: How external influences and EU institutions shape foreign economic policies not only in the European Union"

Paper presented at the ECPR Joint Sessions of Workshops, April 14-19, 2009, Lisbon, Portugal.

Abstract:
Existing accounts of the determinants of foreign economic policy making generally fall into one of two literature strands: The first one identifies the main determinants of foreign economic policy at the domestic level - for instance, in the way interest groups influence policy making. The second one takes a perspective that reaches beyond domestic conditions, arguing that domestic policy making is influenced by policy decisions made abroad or by conditions on a systemic level. Within this second category we find accounts of the diffusion of foreign economic policies. This paper connects these two perspectives and applies it to foreign economic policy making in the European Union. It is argued that diffusion influences have different effects, depending on the political and institutional conditions through which they are filtered. This notion of "conditional diffusion" can be ideally used in the context of EU foreign policy making: Because the member states of the EU set their common external trade policies at the community level, diffusion influences affect the EU's trade policy differently than it does non-EU members. Given that the EU is such a large player in world economic affairs, this conditional effect will in turn change diffusion influences on non-member states. Empirically, the paper draws on a large data set that captures trade and capital account policies in 140 countries from 1978-2006. I employ a spatial regression approach in which diffusion influences are interacted with a dummy that captures EU membership. It is shown that for countries that are not member states of the EU an increase in worldwide trade weighted trade policy restrictiveness is associated with tighter restriction, while the reverse is true for EU member countries.

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"Conditional diffusion: Smoke free air legislation and tobacco taxation policies in the United States 1970-2007"

Paper presented at the 67th Annual National Conference of the Midwest Political Science Association, April 2-5, 2009, Chicago, IL.

Abstract:
The notion of policy diffusion has recently come under closer scrutiny as researchers are trying to disentangle the various channels through which policies diffuse across jurisdictional boundaries (e.g.: learning vs. competition). At the same time, researchers became interested in the question of how to differentiate between genuine diffusion and common exogenous shocks. What has been largely overlooked so far is the way in which diffusion influences interact with political and institutional conditions within jurisdictions. This paper argues that the same diffusion influence can exert different effects depending on the political and institutional conditions in the jurisdiction subject to this influence. I thus propose modeling the effect of diffusion processes as conditional upon the political and institutional specifics of jurisdictions. As an example of this approach, the paper studies diffusion influences and their conditional effects in the context of smoke free air legislation and tobacco taxation in the 48 contiguous U.S. states from 1970-2006. I show that diffusion influences are more pronounced for liberal state governments than they are for conservative governments. This conditional diffusion influence is present both in tax and regulatory policies.

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"Who follows the leaders? Foreign economic policy diffusion 1978-2004" (mit Gerald Schneider)

Abstract:
Foreign economic policy liberalization is marked by remarkable variation across countries. While there has been a general trend towards less restrictive trade and capital account regulations, important differences remain. We present a model of foreign economic policy making in which a country's specific liberalization costs interact with levels of foreign economic policy regulation in other countries. Specifically, by changing opportunity costs of restrictive policies, liberalization steps in other countries change the optimal level of foreign economic policy restrictiveness in a given country. However, changes to current account regulations do not occur automatically. Rather, they are conditioned by domestic costs of liberalization. Diffusion processes, therefore, do not necessarily result in policy convergence. We test the predictions of the model by drawing on a data set that covers policy measures in the area of trade and capital account regulation. The data cover 140 countries in the time from 1978 to 2004. Using an empirical model of conditional policy diffusion, we show that the data match the predictions of uneven patterns of liberalization.

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